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The war in Ukraine and the crisis on the Polish construction and transport market 

As a result of the war on our eastern border, many men who had been drafted into the army had to return to Ukraine. It is related to the outflow of workers from Ukraine, who until now constituted a visible part of some sectors of the Polish labor market. According to a study by the Polish Economic Institute, as many as 42% Polish companies fear the consequences of the war. Is it right?

Who should be afraid? 

The Polish Economic Institute reports that “only every tenth company believes that the threat to their operations is very small. Concerns are felt regardless of the size of companies, although there is more concern among micro (46%) than large (28%) companies. In February, more than half of the surveyed companies believed that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would not affect their company's operations, according to the current report, these companies were 22%.

Experts believe that the greatest concern is visible among transport companies. Among them, more than 50% indicates a high risk. This is the industry at the moment most threatened, however, we can also observe great concerns in the construction industry. There, 42% indicates a high or very high threat.

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the construction industry has seen a shortage of not only workers, but also materials (of which Ukraine is an important producer), rising prices, and investment slowing down or slowing down. So what about the Polish construction industry?

"It is impossible to disagree with the confirmed assessments of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Polish construction market," says prof. dr hab. Eng. Zbigniew Kledyński, president of the Polish Chamber of Civil Engineers. - Undoubtedly, he will face a difficult time. Already in the first days of the war, when in the Polish Chamber of Civil Engineers we were wondering how to support refugees from Ukraine, we noticed a loss of workers from this country on Polish construction sites. Thus, the problems of employers in the construction industry, already known before the war, will be joined by even greater staff shortages. Added to this is the financial market, i.e. more expensive loans for investors and contractors. Interest rates will rise, and the appetite for new ventures with higher risk will decrease. It smells like a recession and new levels of equilibrium, not necessarily acceptable to all current participants in the construction market ",

In Poland, as many as 1/3 of those employed in transport are citizens of Ukraine.

As a result of the war that started in the East, thousands of drivers of recruiting age did not return to their country overnight.

According to the survey, we can observe the least panic in enterprises, and positive hypotheses and moods prevail in our country. More than 14% companies plan to increase employment, which proves the company's prospering and financial liquidity.

"Currently 53 percent. of the surveyed companies declare that they can maintain liquidity for at least 3 months. Only every twentieth enterprise in Poland has financial resources smaller than for the needs of one month "- notes Andrzej Kubisiak, deputy director of the Polish Economic Institute.

Joanna Karp