What awaits us after the war?

One thing is for sure, the day of the end of the war will come. However, experts cannot estimate when this might happen. More than two months ago, we all deluded that the Russian aggression would last for a while. Today we are no longer deceived, but we are waiting for this day in fear. The longer the Russian invasion lasts, the more consequences we suffer from. Can we imagine a world of war? What will Ukraine look like and what will it look like after the war? What are the envisaged scenarios?

Return to the homeland or life in a new one?

There is a scenario that mimo of patriotism and longing for the country, the scale of the destruction will make it impossible to return to Ukraine soon, and this will make them want to try to organize their lives in Poland. We, as a society, rose to the occasion and, with our support and care, we contributed to making the refugees feel at home, even if at least as little as possible. In addition to individual support, the government has given Ukrainian citizens easier access to the labor market. For those who have already found it, it will be easier to acclimatize.  According to the data of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, already 102 thousand. Ukrainian citizens who came to Poland after the beginning of the Russian aggression against their country found employment in Poland.

For some of them, however, the longing for the country, family or formalities was a reason to return to the country. According to data, more than 3 million refugees have arrived in Poland since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Border Guard estimates that over half a million have already returned to their country.

Reconstruction of Ukraine

There is no doubt who the culprit is, which is why EU diplomat Josep Borell believes that the European Union should rebuild Russia's war-torn Ukraine for its financial reserves taken over from the West. The most important diplomat of the European Union believes that this is the best scenario and a way for Putin to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia froze over $ 300 billion. her reserves. The United States supports this solution, believing that it will require the cooperation and coordination of all Western countries.

Like Borell, Poland also wants to participate in the reconstruction of the attacked country. Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of State Assets Jacek Sasin asked the companies of the State Treasury to "present their plans and possibilities in the process of reconstruction of Ukraine".

Consequences and challenge for the economy 

The great geopolitical changes that await us in the near future and are already visible on the horizon are undeniably huge consequences of the war in Ukraine. As a result, we will face an increase in the fiscal deficit and public debt, which already before the outbreak of the conflict was disproportionately high (over PLN 1.4 trillion).  The increase in state expenditure results in higher taxes in the future or higher inflation, if they are financed by the "additional printing" of money by the central bank". Hand in hand with higher inflation is the food growth that we are already experiencing today. One of the worst-case scenarios is scarcity.

Joanna Karp